1دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، پردیس البرز، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
2استاد دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران - نویسنده مسئول
فرا شهرنشینی که در کشورهای جنوب باعث ایجاد مادرشهرهای چند میلیون نفری می شود، نشان دهنده ی ژرفای ناخوشی ساخت های اجتماعی اقتصادی است. یکی از مسایلی که در رابطه با سازمان یابی کالبدی- فضایی مادرشهرهای ایرانی - اسامی مورد توجه می باشد، دگرگونی کانون های روستایی و مرا کز شهری واقع در حریم آنها، در پیوند با شهر مرکزی است. از آنجا که رشد شهرنشینی به عنوان یک پدیده جمعیتی تا حدودی در ارتباط با نوع فعالیت ها در شهر صورت می گیرد، بایستی ساماندهی و صیانت از است و توسعه مرزهای کالبدی شهر با توجه به انباشت جمعیت در آن حریم مادرشهرها براساس مطالعه روابط متقابل میان اسکان جمعیت و اشتغال در چارچوب حریم تبیین گردد. پژوهش حاضر از الگوی پس رویدادی و تکوینی بهره گرفته و از نظر روش شناسی، از روش کیفی با رویکرد متکی به توصیفی- تحلیلی استفاده کرده است. این پژوهش، نخست به بررسی وضعیت موجود فعالیت و جمعیت در حریم مادرشهر تهران پرداخته و بینی جمعیت و روش های برآورد فعالیت، تحولات آتی آن ها را تشریح نموده است. سپس با استفاده از مدل های پیش نتایج پژوهش نشان می دهد که رشد جمعیت و فعالیت در گستره حریم مادرشهر تهران به صورت مسمتر ادامه دارد و کاهش تعداد سکونتگاه ها و مرا کز فعالیت در برخی از دوره های زمانی، به معنای مهاجر فرستی، زوال کانون های جمعیت و ایستایی مرا کز فعالیت نیست؛ بلکه به دلیل گسترش محدوده مادرشهر تهران، پدیده شهرشدگی زودهنگام نقاط روستایی، ادغام آنها و تغییر محدوده های آماری در سرشماری هاست. بدین ترتیب تکوین نواحی شهر- بنیاد جدید با مشکلاتی ای نزدیک، دور از انتظار نیست؛ در پایان نیز مشابه مادرشهر تهران، در سایر شهرهای بزرگ واقع در پیرامون تهران، در آینده و بر اساس یافته های پژوهش، راهبردهای مناسب به منظور مدیریت جمعیت و فعالیت در حریم SWOT با استفاده از روش مادرشهر تهران استخراج گردید.
Analysis of Population Changes and Activity in Tehran Metropolis Exclusion zone and Its Management Requirements
It seems that the issue of exclusion of cities and its management after collapsing physical walls of city is regarded as an important issue toward development and guidance of city. For achieving to this goal the required conditions and tools shall be provided.One of the most paramount points which should be taken into consideration in physical and spatial Organization of Iranian – Islamic metropolitans is the transformation of villas and villages and existing cities in connection with metropolitans. Regarding the fact that the expansion of urbanism as a demographic phenomenon has been closely entwined with the activities done in the cities, and considering the fact that the expansion of physical boundaries of the cities occurs due to the accumulation of population, each and every single kind of control over the privacy of the metropolitans is according to the study of the bilateral relationship existing between population and activity in the scope of the city privacy. This research relies on a descriptive- analysis approach and by using the population prediction models and activity prediction models scrutinize the current situation of activities and population of Tehran and probe into its further changes. The results of this research reveals the fact that the population and activity growth is still continuing in Tehran and its suburbs, and the reduction in the number of habitats and workshops in some periods of census does not mean the evacuation of settlements or the factory closures, but it discloses The phenomenon of early disruption of rural areas and their merger, the expansion of Tehran, and an alteration in the statistical area at the time of census. Spatial organization of centers of work & activity in Tehran by its environmental condition, settlement patterns, economic activities (and their changes), and social processes. A large number of factors affect the city’s spatial organization and the dispersal of activities, the most important of which are the city’s environmental, historical, socio-economic, transportation, and economic structures. In recent years, due to a lack of governmental control, interference of decisions made by authorities, and the adoption of uncoordinated policies of land management, Tehran has experienced irreparable bioenvironmental damages; farming lands have been sold illegally and turned into residential areas and more and more unofficial settlements have appeared to accommodate low income groups. The spatial distribution of the people migrating to Tehran in various periods shows that due to the social and economic changes happening in the country, the number and origin of migrants have also changed. During the years 1976 to 1986, migration from villages to cities did not cease. The villagers suffering from the consequences of the Land Reform made before the revolution and the consequences of the imposed war after the revolution continued to rush to cities. The migrants came to Tehran from the south and the northwest. The greatest number of migrants came to the city of Tehran were from Tehran province A glance at the map of Tehran and its surrounding settlements shows that most of these settlements, situated in the fertile plain of the south and southwest of Tehran and the west of Karaj, have a population of over 5000 (potential candidates for becoming a city) or a population of between 2000 to 5000. Settlements on this plain have always had the potential for turning into a city. It has good soil, a moderate slope, and easy access to water and main roads. In addition to population, many large industrial units are settled there; it will also be the main center for population settlement and industrial development in the future. The mountainous areas and the heights, which have surrounded the northern half of Tehran like a wall, and the dry areas in the Southwest cannot compete with the plain in attracting business activities and population. With the expansion of national and regional road networks connecting Tehran to other cities and the settlement of new industries and other activities requiring large and cheap land around Tehran, as well as the transfer of certain businesses to outer areas, the surrounding cities and settlements have rapidly expanded and developed, attracting a large population in recent decades. These settlements todayform a great part of Tehran province. Thus the greatest population density around Tehran is observed in the southern areas and in such cities as Islam Shahr, Pakdasht, Rey, and the areas along Tehran-Karaj highway and the city of Shahreyar. Islamshahr, Ghods and Gharchak, the largest cities of the province after Tehran and Karaj, were originally unofficial settlements that later turned into cities. These cities played two important roles in business activities and population settlement; first, business activities have moved closed the city to its infrastructural facilities and as a result, the population has moved closer to work place to make maximal use of urban services. Second, low income groups have been forced to move from the city to the settlements in order to avoid expensive housing and work places. As a result, high income families have moved to the northern areas with better climate and the low income families have moved to surrounding settlements where they can find cheap land and services for the poor. A study of the residential areas of the low income population in the marginal areas of Tehran in recent decades shows that, unlike in industrial and developed countries, in Tehran it is the low income groups that have moved considerably. They have left the central areas due to the high costs of living and have migrated to the marginal areas where housing is cheap. They have settled in scattered villages and estates, where they are deprived of the minimum urban services and infrastructure. They have increased the costs of urban management for organizing these unofficial settlements and improving living and bioenvironmental conditions. The dramatic increase in the trend of absorption of population in the villages from one side, and the reduction in the number of rural zones around the metropolitans and large cities such as Karaj, Islamshahr, Varamin, Shahryiar, malard, golestan and Ghale-hassankhan(Qods) has a close similarity with the sharp trend of absorption of population of the villages located in the suburb of Tehran and the reduction in the number of rural zones Between 55-1345 and 65-1355.consequently, according to the Aforementioned point, it could be mentioned that the big cities around Tehran and their surroundings are experiencing the trend similar to The one Tehran and its suburbs have experienced in the last four Decades. However, the difference here is that, they are not passing their evolutionary period. Thus, in near future, it does not seem Strange if the metropolitan phenomenon occurs, and the challenges like the ones which exist in Tehran happen in other big cities located Nearby Tehran. In this regard, it is suggested that instead of Developing the borders of the urban space of Tehran as a metropolitan to the other sides of the borders of the provinces of Robatkarim and Shahriar, the functional chains of the associated cities are recognized, and a revision is done in bordering Tehran. Finally, by using the SWOT model in conjunction with the acquired findings through the research, practical strategies for an efficient management of both population and activity of the privacy of Tehran, as a metropolitan have been proposed.
کلیدواژه ها [English]
Population Changes, Activity Prediction, Exclusion zone, Urban management, Tehran Metropolis
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